Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:24:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2C 0x2c4d…20cc sports 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,511 (-12%) realized −$11,488 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 26L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,846per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$911est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$568now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,097
7 days−$3,097
14 days−$3,097
30 days−$544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$12,417
other 13% +$1,187
crypto 5% −$717
economics 0% −$25
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +40.2% +26.8% 62% 62% -19.0%
≤30d 26 -17.6% -25.4% 38% 38% -10.2%
≤90d 46 -12.6% -20.9% 43% 41% -21.2%
all 46 -12.6% -20.9% 43% 41% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 41% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 39% -28.7%
15% -35.4% 37% -35.6%
20% -41.7% 35% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$2,362) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,442 vs −$1,570 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$568
Realized−$11,488
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$911
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 52
History coverage51d
Avg bet$1,846
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 64¢ 64¢ $288 $286 −$2 (-1%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 68¢ 69¢ $204 $208 +$4 (+2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 1¢ $98 $73 −$25 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $151 +$377 +250%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,013 +$1,252 +124%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9,996 +$1,187 +12%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$26 +213%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,362 −$2,362 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $9,987 +$2,376 +24%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5,691 −$5,656 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $302 −$296 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $3,093 −$3,040 -98%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 27 $9,978 −$9,874 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $9,199 +$7,668 +83%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $210 −$201 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) May 26 $47 −$47 -100%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs NRG Academy - Map 2 Winner May 26 $547 −$547 -100%
Valorant: QoR vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stag May 26 $522 −$522 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $955 −$955 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) May 26 $1,068 −$1,068 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 26 $8 −$8 -97%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 26 $1,040 +$958 +92%
Valorant: REBORN vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs May 25 $413 +$337 +82%
Valorant: All Gamers vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - China Evolution Series May 25 $271 −$271 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 25 $8,200 +$6,427 +78%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 24 $1 $0 -2%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 24 $4,482 +$3,718 +83%
Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs Cloud9 (+1.5) Apr 28 $1,645 −$1,645 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Apr 28 $6,144 −$6,144 -100%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Grou Apr 26 $3,250 +$1,648 +51%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels - Map 2 Winner Apr 26 $2,045 +$849 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 26 $756 −$756 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 26 $401 −$401 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 26 $265 +$218 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 26 $258 +$228 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 26 $257 +$227 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 26 $720 −$720 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 26 $254 −$254 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 26 $258 −$258 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 26 $520 +$466 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 26 $237 +$260 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 26 $510 +$482 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 26 $337 −$337 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 26 $202 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 26 $58 +$132 +227%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Gr Apr 26 $701 −$701 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs KRÜ Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 26 $4,724 −$4,724 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $291 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $206 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 35¢ $253 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $40 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1,013 4h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $151 5h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $38 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $11,183 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $9,996 8h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15 BUY 14¢ $39 8h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $1,112 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $20 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $50 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $50 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $9 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $80 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $34 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $4 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $486 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $514 9h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $12,362 9h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 9h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 95¢ $954 9h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 95¢ $1 9h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 95¢ $63 9h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 95¢ $2,850 9h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 95¢ $193 9h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 95¢ $127 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $567.52 · official $815.67 · 457 history records