Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:00:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2C 0x2c4d…0486 sports 430 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,482 (-5%) realized −$3,482 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%208W / 221L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$467est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 82d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$2,952
other 25% −$5,445
crypto 21% −$1,619
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +0.5% -9.0% 67% 48% -12.8%
≤30d 100 -19.3% -27.0% 46% 36% -21.5%
≤90d 429 -14.0% -22.2% 48% 41% -22.4%
all 429 -14.0% -22.2% 48% 41% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 41% -22.4%
10% -29.6% 34% -29.8%
15% -36.4% 28% -36.6%
20% -42.7% 22% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$129 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,482
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses208 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$467
Open positions0
Markets (closed)429 / 430
History coverage82d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 429 Trades
no open positions (85 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 +$5 +42%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +65%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $350 −$343 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,414 −$1,067 -76%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $801 +$41 +5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $604 +$169 +28%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $817 +$1,144 +140%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,309 −$491 -38%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,242 +$77 +6%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,201 +$36 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,101 +$107 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $646 +$454 +70%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $546 +$101 +18%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $460 +$86 +19%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $701 −$691 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $193 +$21 +11%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 −$85 -84%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $503 −$500 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $935 +$90 +10%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $723 +$212 +29%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $587 +$136 +23%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $750 −$163 -22%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $567 +$183 +32%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $550 +$17 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $526 +$30 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 −$49 -48%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,020 −$3,599 -90%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,765 +$2,412 +137%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,421 −$1,413 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$54 -52%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $588 +$1,332 +226%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $587 −$575 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 03 $1,236 −$1,200 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 73¢ $25 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 99¢ $17 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 69¢ $12 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $5 14h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 27h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 28¢ $350 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 17¢ $346 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,414 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 95¢ $801 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $773 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $604 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ja BUY 17¢ $154 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 58¢ $39 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 40¢ $817 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 49¢ $818 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $1,309 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 94¢ $1,242 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 99¢ $1,237 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 96¢ $1,201 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,207 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,101 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $646 3d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 84¢ $546 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 99¢ $546 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $460 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $701 4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 10¢ $16 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $193 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1058 history records