Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c4c…cb39 world 96 markets active 10h ago coverage 448d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialistFading edge⚠ Covers last 447d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$84,488 (-11%) realized −$84,133 · open −$355
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%28W / 65L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,161per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$511est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$82,541now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 448d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$52,474
other 6% +$2,170
sports 3% −$26,164
economics 3% −$22,000
politics 2% +$10,157
finance 0% −$142
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 12 -80.4% -82.3% 8% 8% +1.9%
≤90d 24 -31.6% -38.1% 8% 8% -17.2%
all 93 +1.0% -8.7% 30% 29% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 29% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 26% -17.8%
15% -25.4% 24% -25.7%
20% -32.7% 19% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$5,113) neutral
Persistence
early +45% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
29.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10,576 vs −$4,511 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$82,541
Realized−$84,133
Unrealized−$355
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses28 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$511
Open positions17
Markets (closed)93 / 96
History coverage448d ⚠
Avg bet$8,161
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $68,444 $68,055 −$389 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 71¢ 100¢ $7,889 $11,105 +$3,217 (+41%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 29¢ 14¢ $3,582 $1,791 −$1,791 (-50%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $1,307 $702 −$605 (-46%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Yes 23¢ 16¢ $692 $467 −$226 (-33%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 3¢ 58¢ $7 $145 +$138 (+1854%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 3¢ 34¢ $7 $83 +$76 (+1022%)
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $491 $62 −$429 (-87%)
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $227 $52 −$176 (-77%)
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $60 $33 −$27 (-44%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 100¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+12%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $7 $15 +$8 (+104%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 94¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+89%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 27¢ 42¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$7 (-92%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-95%)
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 28 $149 −$149 -100%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024? Jun 28 $3,060 −$3,060 -100%
Israel military response against Iran in October? Jun 28 $1,110 −$1,110 -100%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 28 $823 −$823 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jun 28 $1,732 −$1,732 -100%
Was Milei hacked? Jun 28 $3,826 −$3,826 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jun 28 $2,710 −$2,710 -100%
Doge ETF approved in 2024? Jun 28 $450 −$450 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $716 −$716 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 09 $18,533 −$1,393 -8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Jun 09 $67,941 +$28,823 +42%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 15 $16,892 −$16,892 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 12 $1,191 −$1,191 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 11 $300 −$300 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 10 $390 −$390 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? Apr 10 $1,185 −$1,185 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $414 −$414 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 09 $2,917 −$2,917 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 09 $5,155 −$5,155 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 07 $6,629 +$7,618 +115%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $2,015 −$2,015 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? Apr 07 $264 −$264 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 09 $142 −$142 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026? Mar 03 $2,669 −$2,669 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? Mar 03 $6,906 −$6,906 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026? Mar 03 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026? Mar 03 $3,869 −$3,868 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026? Mar 02 $4,778 −$4,777 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 02 $1,111 −$1,111 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 01 $2,335 −$2,335 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $14,096 −$2,197 -16%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Mar 01 $4,206 +$2,083 +50%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $19,262 −$19,259 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $4,110 −$4,095 -100%
Khamenei seen in public by March 14? Mar 01 $198 −$197 -100%
Khamenei seen in public by March 7? Mar 01 $0 $0 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $249 −$249 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Feb 28 $575 −$575 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $129,242 −$129,239 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $21,352 −$21,352 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $216 −$216 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Feb 01 $241 +$562 +233%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Feb 01 $2,969 +$364 +12%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Feb 01 $1,689 +$4,977 +295%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Feb 01 $14,174 +$15,687 +111%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Feb 01 $10,763 +$20,568 +191%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $38,765 +$57,004 +147%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 01 $65,214 +$27,473 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $46,414 9h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $132 10h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $7 11h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 11h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 11h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $81 11h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $73 11h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $19 11h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $71 11h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $15 12h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $130 12h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $10,971 12h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 12h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $14 12h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $73 12h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $733 12h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $5 13h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $12 13h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $264 13h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $396 13h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $176 13h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $73 14h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $466 14h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $2 14h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $8,202 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $16 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $700 13d
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $16 49d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY No 12¢ $10 73d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY No 12¢ $1 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82,541.32 · official $82,541.32 (match) · 3500 history records