Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:06:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2C 0x2c4c…3f12 sports 584 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$94 (-6%) realized −$92 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%241W / 299L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day43.2pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$11
14 days−$14
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$92
other 13% −$16
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +25.6% +13.7% 35% 35% +9.1%
≤30d 540 -7.9% -16.7% 45% 39% -16.4%
≤90d 540 -7.9% -16.7% 45% 39% -16.4%
all 540 -7.9% -16.7% 45% 39% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 39% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 31% -24.4%
15% -31.9% 25% -31.7%
20% -38.6% 20% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses241 / 299
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions44
Markets (closed)540 / 584
History coverage27d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day43.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 540 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Defne Cirpanli vs Eugenia Zozaya Menendez Eugenia Zozaya Menendez 87¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez Elena Milovanovic 85¢ 84¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin Chun-Hsin Tseng 77¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score No 61¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 45¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Oliver Crawford 55¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Zsombor Piros 41¢ 32¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Arthur Fery 56¢ 56¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers LG Twins 67¢ 68¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Alvaro Guillen Meza 29¢ 46¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos NC Dinos 47¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 20¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Raphael Collignon 61¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Daniel Jade 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini Mees Rottgering 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Bernard Tomic 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? No 85¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 84¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Linda Noskova 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? No 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? No 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Marco Cecchinato 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 237 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 16 $3 $0 -3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 16 $3 $0 -6%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $3 $0 -7%
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 $0 -7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $3 $0 -8%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4 +$17 +414%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +146%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 +$3 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4 +$4 +109%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $21 −$21 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $12 +$3 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $5 +$5 +101%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $2 +$1 +42%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $16 +$5 +31%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $9 +$17 +188%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $3 $0 +14%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $2 +$1 +65%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $5 +$4 +72%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $9 −$9 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $9 −$9 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $2 +$3 +146%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $2 +$1 +29%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $11 +$1 +8%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $14 −$14 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $1 +$3 +291%
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5 May 31 $1 $0 +31%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2 $0 +20%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 +$1 +60%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $3 $0 -14%
Vicenza: Jacopo Vasami vs Lukas Neumayer May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 29¢ $1 13m
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Chloe Paquet 13¢ $1 13m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $1 13m
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY Katie Volynets 45¢ $1 17m
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 29¢ $1 19m
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Federico Bondioli 70¢ $1 21m
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata SELL Yanki Erel 72¢ $3 23m
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 52¢ $1 27m
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Yanki Erel 73¢ $1 27m
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Yanki Erel 73¢ $1 29m
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Yanki Erel 73¢ $1 29m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $1 29m
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 84¢ $1 31m
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua BUY Linda Noskova 83¢ $1 31m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 45¢ $1 33m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 45¢ $1 35m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 45¢ $1 37m
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli BUY Raffaele Ciurnelli 25¢ $1 39m
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Alvaro Guillen Meza 50¢ $1 43m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $1 45m
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 68¢ $1 47m
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 46¢ $1 47m
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 45¢ $1 49m
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Oliver Crawford 54¢ $1 49m
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Oliver Crawford 54¢ $1 51m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 55m
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 67¢ $1 57m
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros SELL Zsombor Piros 57¢ $1 57m
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Bernard Tomic 87¢ $1 57m
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $1 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.88 · official $59.01 (match) · 1439 history records