Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:24:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2C 0x2c4c…7a24 sports 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$173 (-20%) realized −$173 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%35W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$28
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$158
other 13% −$13
crypto 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +58.3% +43.2% 67% 67% +44.5%
≤30d 15 +58.3% +43.2% 67% 67% +44.5%
≤90d 15 +58.3% +43.2% 67% 67% +44.5%
all 69 +0.0% -9.5% 51% 45% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 45% -26.2%
10% -18.1% 36% -33.2%
15% -26.1% 30% -39.7%
20% -33.3% 28% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$173
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses35 / 34
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage116d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Over 44¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $3 +$5 +152%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$5 +158%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 +$6 +197%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3 +$3 +97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +165%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +82%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$3 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +249%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Mar 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Mar 07 $43 −$34 -78%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Mar 07 $36 +$2 +6%
LoL: Cloud9 vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Mar 05 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Mar 05 $3 +$4 +117%
Spread: Wizards (-3.5) Mar 05 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 05 $3 $0 +11%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-05? Mar 05 $12 −$9 -73%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs T1 - Map 2 Winner Mar 04 $29 −$13 -44%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs T1 - Map 1 Winner Mar 04 $8 +$4 +47%
Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 04 $10 −$2 -19%
Valorant: NRG vs Team Liquid - Map 2 Winner Mar 04 $5 −$2 -40%
Valorant: NRG vs Team Liquid - Map 1 Winner Mar 04 $22 +$12 +56%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates - Map 1 Winner Mar 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5 Mar 02 $22 −$13 -60%
Pelicans vs. Clippers Mar 02 $21 +$1 +6%
76ers vs. Celtics Mar 02 $17 +$3 +19%
Pistons vs. Magic Mar 02 $22 −$5 -21%
Grizzlies vs. Pacers Mar 02 $15 +$7 +43%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs Mar 01 $20 −$4 -21%
AS Roma vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 01 $5 +$5 +92%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Feb 28 $46 −$46 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Feb 28 $13 +$33 +251%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Score Feb 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Feb 24 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Feb 24 $1 $0 +32%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Feb 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Feb 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Spurs vs. Pistons Feb 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-23? Feb 23 $19 +$7 +35%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 23 $5 −$2 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $3 1h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 2h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 45¢ $5 20h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 20h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $8 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $3 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $3 28h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $3 30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $7 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $4 2d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $3 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $3 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $3 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 4d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 93d
Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 93d
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago BUY Paper Rex 54¢ $15 93d
Valorant: BBL Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner BUY NRG 26¢ $10 101d
Valorant: BBL Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner SELL NRG 21¢ $10 101d
Valorant: BBL Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner BUY NRG 71¢ $34 101d
Valorant: BBL Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner SELL BBL Esports 1¢ $0 101d
Valorant: BBL Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner BUY BBL Esports 12¢ $5 101d
Valorant: BBL Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner SELL NRG 84¢ $1 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.59 · official $7.62 · 138 history records