Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:12:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c48…59a4 sports 13 markets active 9h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-3%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$1
sports 32% −$8
world 30% +$7
weather 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -34.2% -40.4% 42% 42% -12.4%
≤30d 12 -34.2% -40.4% 42% 42% -12.4%
≤90d 12 -34.2% -40.4% 42% 42% -12.4%
all 12 -34.2% -40.4% 42% 42% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.4% 42% -12.4%
10% -46.1% 25% -20.8%
15% -51.3% 25% -28.4%
20% -56.1% 25% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 78¢ 69¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 18 $9 +$5 +60%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 +$5 +61%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.47 · official $3.48 (match) · 24 history records