Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:01:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2c47…30b6 other 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$83 (+4%) realized +$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%50W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$164
14 days+$177
30 days+$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$91
sports 33% −$41
world 1% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +36.7% +23.7% 77% 69% +23.4%
≤30d 22 +24.4% +12.5% 68% 64% +13.7%
≤90d 47 +17.6% +6.4% 66% 64% +6.8%
all 91 -2.7% -12.0% 55% 54% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 54% -6.1%
10% -20.4% 54% -15.1%
15% -28.1% 54% -23.3%
20% -35.1% 48% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses50 / 41
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage167d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: United States (-1.5) Australia 65¢ 64¢ $65 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $52 +$57 +109%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $53 +$58 +109%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $39 +$57 +146%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $27 +$31 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$14 +55%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $28 +$16 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 +$21 +90%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $22 +$10 +44%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $37 +$19 +51%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $37 −$37 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -99%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? Jun 12 $33 +$29 +86%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 12 $33 +$33 +97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 24 $22 +$18 +79%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 24 $25 +$21 +83%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 24 $29 +$33 +114%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $27 −$26 -99%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 15 $20 +$12 +62%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 15 $20 +$16 +83%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 15 $25 +$13 +52%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 10 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? May 09 $19 +$11 +57%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? May 09 $19 +$17 +90%
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) May 03 $23 −$23 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? May 02 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? May 02 $17 +$12 +70%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 28 $14 +$10 +76%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 28 $14 +$17 +124%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $11 +$8 +73%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $12 +$10 +79%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 19 $17 +$12 +70%
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) Apr 18 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 08 $17 −$17 -99%
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) Mar 22 $18 +$11 +60%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 22 $21 +$11 +54%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Mar 22 $21 +$16 +79%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 15 $16 +$9 +56%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 15 $16 +$17 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $66 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $52 20h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $52 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $53 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $39 40h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $27 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $30 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $28 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 66¢ $28 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $27 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $23 4d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $22 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 65¢ $19 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $19 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 66¢ $19 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $19 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $22 7d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 60¢ $27 7d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 53¢ $33 26d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $33 26d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $33 26d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 53¢ $33 26d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $29 32d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 54¢ $25 33d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $22 34d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 66¢ $27 34d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) BUY West Ham United FC 65¢ $25 39d
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) BUY Burnley FC 61¢ $20 40d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 54¢ $20 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.50 · official $64.50 (match) · 148 history records