Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:17:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c47…3362 crypto 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3426 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,736 (+4%) realized +$1,717 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate53%40W / 35L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$582per market
Trades / day3426.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3426 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +0.5% -9.1% 53% 11% -9.2%
≤30d 75 +0.5% -9.1% 53% 11% -9.2%
≤90d 75 +0.5% -9.1% 53% 11% -9.2%
all 75 +0.5% -9.1% 53% 11% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3426.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 11% -9.2%
10% -17.8% 4% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -25.7% 3% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$706) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
45.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$38 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized+$1,717
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses40 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$582
Trades / day3426.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 64¢ 70¢ $138 $152 +$14 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 19¢ 30¢ $35 $54 +$19 (+55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $535 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $457 −$57 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $877 +$33 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $481 −$54 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $764 −$12 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $538 +$28 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $628 −$33 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $1,060 −$15 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $723 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $735 −$15 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $594 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $1,114 −$18 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $374 +$37 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $721 +$41 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $1,040 +$63 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $472 −$68 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $1,072 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $585 −$54 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $671 −$23 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $517 +$49 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $528 +$50 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $777 +$25 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $656 −$157 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $559 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $565 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $676 +$64 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $405 +$32 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $141 +$21 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $492 −$34 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $330 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $424 −$13 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $563 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $307 −$64 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $596 +$72 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $372 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $507 −$16 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $559 −$28 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 23 $219 +$22 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 23 $363 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $593 −$53 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $593 +$36 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $739 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $385 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $387 −$56 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $423 +$50 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $611 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $801 −$54 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $394 +$34 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $373 +$25 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $13 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $48 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $30 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $62 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.75 · official $206.75 (match) · 3500 history records