Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2c45…680b crypto 288 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$169 (+4%) realized +$159 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate81%230W / 53L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$126
14 days+$127
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$21
sports 10% +$99
other 3% −$4
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +7.9% -2.4% 83% 78% -2.2%
≤30d 245 +2.7% -7.0% 84% 78% -6.9%
≤90d 277 +2.8% -7.0% 82% 75% -7.2%
all 283 +2.2% -7.5% 81% 74% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 74% -7.2%
10% -16.4% 15% -16.1%
15% -24.4% 7% -24.2%
20% -31.8% 5% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized+$159
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses230 / 53
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)283 / 288
History coverage132d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 70¢ $56 $70 +$14 (+26%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 34¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-31%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Over 65¢ 65¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $21 −$3 -12%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$2 -15%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$3 -5%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $14 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +15%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 +$11 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $19 +$6 +32%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +19%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +11%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$9 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +15%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +14%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 +$26 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$3 +18%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $8 0m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $30 1m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 34¢ $18 2m
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 SELL Over 64¢ $54 5m
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $14 5m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $14 7m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $12 12m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $19 12m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 13m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $2 15m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 45¢ $49 19m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 26m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 27m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $45 28m
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $11 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $32 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 89¢ $13 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $7 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $7 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $14 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $23 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $14 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $28 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $12 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.16 · official $166.72 (match) · 635 history records