Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:29:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2c44…ce0c other 8 markets active 10h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$245 (+44%) realized +$245 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +92% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$203
sports 35% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+74.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +92.3% +74.0% 67% 67% +45.2%
≤30d 6 +92.3% +74.0% 67% 67% +45.2%
≤90d 6 +92.3% +74.0% 67% 67% +45.2%
all 6 +92.3% +74.0% 67% 67% +45.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +74.0% 67% +45.2%
10% +57.3% 67% +31.3%
15% +42.1% 67% +18.6%
20% +28.2% 67% +7.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +92% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$89 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$245
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 23 $141 −$139 -98%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $67 +$261 +388%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $41 +$38 +93%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $91 +$85 +93%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$37 +180%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $41 9h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portug BUY 63¢ $101 11h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1 BUY 52¢ $23 11h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portug BUY 63¢ $25 11h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $141 27h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $328 27h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $78 27h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $176 27h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $57 27h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $67 32h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $51 32h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $20 32h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $41 32h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $41 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records