Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2C 0x2c42…a094 sports 205 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$45 · open +$23
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%108W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days−$39
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$62
crypto 6% +$21
world 3% −$2
other 2% +$19
tech 2% +$14
economics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +24.0% +12.2% 100% 40% +13.5%
≤30d 60 +3.9% -6.0% 60% 50% -14.8%
≤90d 155 +8.2% -2.1% 58% 50% -9.2%
all 189 +4.2% -5.8% 57% 49% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 49% -10.8%
10% -14.8% 47% -19.3%
15% -23.0% 46% -27.1%
20% -30.6% 37% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$13 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses108 / 81
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions16
Markets (closed)189 / 205
History coverage143d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $20 $40 +$20 (+100%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 82¢ 99¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+21%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 59¢ 94¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+59%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ 55¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 88¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ 38¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 43¢ 18¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 16 $10 +$11 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Perugia: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Timofey Skatov Jun 09 $10 +$4 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 09 $20 +$34 +165%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $6 +$1 +19%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $7 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $7 +$5 +73%
ITF Lakewood: Theodore Dean vs Iiro Vasa Jun 02 $9 +$9 +93%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 02 $10 +$13 +124%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 02 $10 +$13 +124%
Little Rock: Justin Boulais vs Nicolas Mejia May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 28 $10 +$9 +90%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $10 +$15 +146%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 28 $20 +$26 +129%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Cervia: Ivan Ivanov vs Franco Roncadelli May 24 $10 $0 -3%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Elmer Moeller vs Timofey Skatov May 24 $10 $0 -3%
Hamburg European Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ignacio Buse May 24 $10 +$5 +46%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Clement Tabur May 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 24 $9 +$8 +90%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Chris Rodesch vs Leandro Riedi May 24 $10 +$7 +71%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 24 $10 +$8 +79%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Nerman Fatic vs Luka Mikrut May 24 $10 +$8 +83%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 24 $10 +$9 +86%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Lucie Havlickov May 24 $10 +$9 +93%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova May 24 $10 +$9 +93%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 24 $20 +$8 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $20 7d
Perugia: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Timofey Skatov BUY Timofey Skatov 70¢ $10 13d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $10 13d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 47¢ $20 13d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 54¢ $20 13d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $20 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $20 13d
ITF Lakewood: Theodore Dean vs Iiro Vasa BUY Theodore Dean 51¢ $9 19d
Little Rock: Justin Boulais vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 69¢ $10 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Brandon Nakashima 44¢ $10 19d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 45¢ $10 19d
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Minnesota Twins 40¢ $10 19d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $10 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 41¢ $20 19d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Canadiens 32¢ $10 19d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ $3 23d
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins BUY New York Mets 47¢ $10 23d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Cleveland Guardians 52¢ $10 23d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees BUY Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ $10 23d
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Minnesota Twins 40¢ $10 23d
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Detroit Tigers 42¢ $10 23d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 36¢ $10 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.00 · official $184.00 (match) · 341 history records