Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:07:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2c41…133e
politics · 510 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$32,147 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$26,894 · open +$4,498
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$35,486
Realized+$26,894
Unrealized+$4,498
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses212 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions75
Markets (closed)454 / 510
History coverage297d
Avg bet$429
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 75 History 454 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,920
7 days−$1,747
14 days−$2,271
30 days+$6,148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 49¢ 80¢ $9,857 $16,055 +$6,197 (+63%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 62¢ 56¢ $10,544 $9,473 −$1,072 (-10%)
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 77¢ 95¢ $1,851 $2,276 +$425 (+23%)
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? No 51¢ 43¢ $794 $670 −$124 (-16%)
Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 63¢ 76¢ $463 $559 +$96 (+21%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 70¢ 72¢ $538 $551 +$13 (+2%)
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes 73¢ 82¢ $434 $490 +$56 (+13%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 83¢ 72¢ $467 $408 −$59 (-13%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 88¢ $345 $406 +$61 (+18%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by 5–10%? No 64¢ 97¢ $241 $364 +$123 (+51%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $295 $269 −$27 (-9%)
Will Carnita Atwater win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election? No 86¢ 88¢ $257 $264 +$7 (+3%)
Will Mike Bouchard be the Republican Nominee for MI-10? Yes 83¢ 92¢ $235 $262 +$27 (+11%)
Will Republican Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? No 91¢ 95¢ $214 $224 +$10 (+5%)
Will MrBeast get married by December 31? No 25¢ 34¢ $138 $190 +$51 (+37%)
California voter ID referendum passes? Yes 21¢ 42¢ $92 $182 +$91 (+99%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $210 $182 −$29 (-14%)
Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? No 70¢ 81¢ $146 $170 +$24 (+16%)
Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? Yes 25¢ 59¢ $68 $162 +$94 (+138%)
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly one nominating election in the 2026 cycle? No 87¢ 95¢ $128 $140 +$12 (+10%)
Will Justin Story be the Republican nominee for FL-09? No 86¢ 97¢ $120 $136 +$15 (+13%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by more than 10%? No 81¢ 97¢ $95 $114 +$19 (+20%)
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? No 25¢ 47¢ $59 $112 +$53 (+90%)
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 65¢ 93¢ $78 $111 +$33 (+43%)
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? No 25¢ 7¢ $319 $95 −$224 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July? Jun 12 $932 −$932 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in July? Jun 12 $118 −$118 -100%
Trump x Elon talk before August? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the US add more than 200k jobs in July? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% or more in July? Jun 12 $52 −$57 -110%
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025? Jun 12 $142 −$92 -65%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in July? Jun 12 $535 −$563 -105%
Will Trump attend Hulk Hogan's funeral? Jun 12 $10 −$178 -1838%
Will Trump attend UFC 319? Jun 12 $163 −$163 -100%
Will Trump endorse Eric Adams? Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
Trump x Putin talk by July 31? Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Will MrBeast's TeamWater livestream last less than 6 hours? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Purple Heart ceremony Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Trump x Xi Jinping talk before August? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in July? Jun 12 $165 −$141 -85%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in July? Jun 12 $115 −$124 -108%
Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by August 31? Jun 12 $44 −$44 -99%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in July? Jun 12 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Chris Mathys advance from the CA-22 Primary? Jun 10 $74 +$25 +34%
Will David Valadao advance from the CA-22 Primary? Jun 10 $14 +$6 +38%
Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23? Jun 09 $60 +$196 +327%
Will John Rodgers win the 2026 Vermont Governor Republican primary ele Jun 09 $18 +$6 +34%
Will Maxx Crosby play for Detroit Lions next? Jun 09 $133 +$15 +11%
Will Jon Hansen win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary Jun 09 $55 +$19 +35%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 09 $132 +$433 +328%
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31? Jun 09 $231 +$171 +74%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $4,654 +$302 +6%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-Jun May 30 $3 +$7 +230%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? May 30 $1 +$16 +1067%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 May 30 $555 −$547 -98%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 28 $1,260 +$105 +8%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May May 28 $1,068 +$57 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $7,400 +$6,758 +91%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 27 $625 −$614 -98%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 27 $1,073 −$1,061 -99%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M May 27 $431 −$421 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $6,571 −$365 -6%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 26 $40 +$155 +384%
Will Justin McNeal be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Dakot May 24 $128 +$13 +10%
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 80,000 an May 24 $64 +$24 +38%
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican prima May 24 $377 +$145 +38%
Will Lamont McClure be the Democratic nominee for PA-07? May 23 $245 +$54 +22%
Will Ederson be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis May 23 $84 +$31 +38%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? May 23 $78 +$89 +113%
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel? May 23 $85 +$170 +201%
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? May 23 $1,316 +$2,099 +160%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele May 19 $10 −$9 -96%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 19 $2,069 +$2,769 +134%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 May 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 38% +$11,211
other 32% +$18,168
politics 21% +$2,663
sports 4% +$4,417
culture 2% +$210
economics 2% −$2,132
tech 0% −$78
crypto 0% −$117
finance 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? SELL No 90¢ $34 0m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $200 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $11 20h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? BUY No 75¢ $11 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $2,300 35h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 24¢ $129 37h
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election SELL No 100¢ $40 44h
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election SELL No 100¢ $30 44h
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election SELL No 100¢ $41 46h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? BUY No 58¢ $41 2d
Will Trump Airport become law this year? BUY No 84¢ $41 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $973 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $2,007 2d
Will Chris Mathys advance from the CA-22 Primary? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will David Valadao advance from the CA-22 Primary? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election SELL No 100¢ $127 2d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? SELL No 57¢ $60 2d
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election SELL No 100¢ $18 3d
Will Jared Golden be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? SELL No 99¢ $32 3d
Will Chris Mathys advance from the CA-22 Primary? SELL No 99¢ $40 3d
Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23? SELL No 99¢ $256 3d
Will John Rodgers win the 2026 Vermont Governor Republican primary ele SELL No 99¢ $16 3d
Will Maxx Crosby play for Detroit Lions next? SELL No 100¢ $113 3d
Will Jon Hansen win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary SELL No 100¢ $74 3d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 83¢ $470 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $2,156 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $740 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $132 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $556 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -34.4% -40.6% 32% 29% -26.6%
≤30d 52 +40.2% +26.8% 48% 40% +7.9%
≤90d 149 +16.3% +5.2% 53% 46% +2.1%
all 454 +11.0% +0.4% 47% 40% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 40% +1.8%
10% -9.2% 30% -8.0%
15% -18.0% 24% -16.9%
20% -26.0% 19% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35,485.88 · official $35,485.64 (match) · 3500 history records