Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:49:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2C 0x2c41…3426 crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$83 (+1%) realized +$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate87%47W / 7L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$5
economics 8% −$1
finance 8% −$71
sports 7% +$133
crypto 2% $0
weather 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.0% -12.2% 0% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 90% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 23 +0.4% -9.2% 91% 0% -10.0%
all 54 +0.9% -8.7% 87% 7% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 7% -8.7%
10% -17.5% 4% -17.4%
15% -25.4% 4% -25.4%
20% -32.8% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$28 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses47 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage202d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $46 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 23°F or below on May 8? Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Jun 04 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 36-37°F on May 8? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 28-29°F on May 8? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 38-39°F on May 8? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Jun 04 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 30-31°F on May 8? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 34-35°F on May 8? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 04 $7 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.50 on May 3? May 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on May 3? May 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $75 on May 3? May 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.55 on May 3? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on May 3? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.25 on May 3? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 on May 3? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $90 on May 3? May 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 on May 3? May 06 $8 $0 +0%
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 03 $3 $0 -1%
Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch? May 03 $3 $0 +2%
Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? May 03 $3 $0 +3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 03 $3 $0 +4%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on March 6? Mar 06 $92 +$16 +18%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 6? Mar 06 $425 −$43 -10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 6? Mar 06 $96 −$28 -30%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after February 2026 Mar 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 06 $3 +$1 +41%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the February 2026 meeting? Mar 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the February 2026 meeting? Mar 06 $5 $0 +0%
No change in Bank of England's interest rates after February 2026 meet Mar 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the February 2026 meeting? Mar 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Mar 06 $8 +$1 +13%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Feb 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Feb 05 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 05 $8 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in January 2026? Feb 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $500 before 2026? Jan 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $400 before 2026? Jan 08 $2 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Jan 08 $3 $0 +1%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Jan 08 $3 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $4,750 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $44 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $46 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 13d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4 42d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 42d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 42d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 38-39°F on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $6 42d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 36-37°F on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $6 42d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 34-35°F on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $7 42d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 30-31°F on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $7 42d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 28-29°F on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $6 42d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 23°F or below on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $3 42d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $4 45d
Will Solana dip to $70 on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $8 45d
Will Solana dip to $75 on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $5 45d
Will Solana reach $90 on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $7 45d
Will XRP dip to $1.25 on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $6 45d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $6 45d
Will XRP reach $1.50 on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $4 45d
Will XRP reach $1.55 on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $6 45d
Will XRP reach $1.60 on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $6 45d
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $3 45d
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on March 6? SELL Down 99¢ $109 102d
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on March 6? BUY Down 84¢ $92 103d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 6? SELL Down 100¢ $174 103d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 6? BUY Down 81¢ $141 103d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 6? SELL Up 31¢ $3 103d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 6? SELL Up 31¢ $67 103d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 6? SELL Up 45¢ $68 103d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 6? SELL Up 40¢ $0 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.67 · official $50.67 (match) · 131 history records