Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c41…57a6 crypto 404 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15,778 (-15%) realized −$15,708 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%160W / 238L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$244
7 days−$686
14 days−$686
30 days−$686
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$15,876
sports 22% −$1,451
other 5% +$957
world 0% −$70
politics 0% −$30
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -22.8% -30.1% 39% 32% -35.5%
≤30d 31 -22.8% -30.1% 39% 32% -35.5%
≤90d 148 -34.2% -40.4% 26% 23% -56.9%
all 398 -11.8% -20.2% 40% 36% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 36% -23.7%
10% -27.8% 33% -31.0%
15% -34.8% 29% -37.6%
20% -41.2% 24% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$247 vs −$235 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$15,708
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses160 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions2
Markets (closed)398 / 404
History coverage231d
Avg bet$267
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 42¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 50¢ 24¢ $100 $47 −$53 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $397 +$122 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$16 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 +$210 +322%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $451 −$450 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? Jun 16 $105 +$11 +10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $296 −$293 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 +$31 +31%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $303 +$6 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$46 +46%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$21 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$15 +277%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $355 −$350 -99%
T20 1st Innings 6 Overs Line: O/U 59.5 May 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 14 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin above 79,200 on May 14, 8AM ET? May 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $663 −$650 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10AM ET May 13 $63 −$60 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $127 +$374 +294%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 12 $224 −$219 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $458 −$100 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET May 12 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11AM ET May 12 $118 +$65 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9AM ET May 12 $520 −$10 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8AM ET May 12 $232 −$225 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 12 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7AM ET May 12 $42 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 50¢ $102 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $274 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 57¢ $161 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 31¢ $244 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 35¢ $209 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 14h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Uzbekistan vs. Colomb BUY 33¢ $36 15h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 23¢ $65 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $451 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 10¢ $5 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 10¢ $21 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 2¢ $12 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 9¢ $103 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 41¢ $116 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 2¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.00 · official $130.00 (match) · 1981 history records