Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2C 0x2c3f…2c28 politics 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 33L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$547per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$6
politics 30% −$8
crypto 12% −$3
tech 12% −$3
world 7% $0
culture 5% −$1
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 30 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 33 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$957) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage92d
Avg bet$547
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 28 $59 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $63 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 28 $1,171 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $1,154 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 27 $1,173 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 27 $52 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 27 $1,091 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 27 $1,094 −$1 -0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Jun 26 $63 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $1,080 −$2 -0%
Will Solana Sierra be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 26 $1,114 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $1,154 −$3 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $78 $0 -0%
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De May 04 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 04 $71 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $59 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 03 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $872 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027? May 03 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 02 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Won Hee-ryong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $862 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $898 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 01 $157 $0 -0%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Apr 01 $81 $0 -0%
Will Denny McCarthy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 28 $151 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March? Mar 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 100¢ $59 21m
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $62 29m
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 39m
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 51m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 57m
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $118 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $872 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $280 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,154 1h
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,171 23h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 23h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 23h
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,116 23h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 23h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 23h
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $815 24h
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $277 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,094 24h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? SELL No 100¢ $63 40h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,079 40h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY No 100¢ $11 41h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,013 41h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY No 100¢ $24 41h
Will Solana Sierra be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,113 41h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records