Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2C 0x2c3f…62ef crypto 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate70%49W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day40.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$18
other 4% −$26
sports 3% +$28
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +6.5% -3.6% 70% 53% -11.2%
≤30d 70 +6.5% -3.6% 70% 53% -11.2%
≤90d 70 +6.5% -3.6% 70% 53% -11.2%
all 70 +6.5% -3.6% 70% 53% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 53% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 43% -19.7%
15% -21.3% 29% -27.5%
20% -29.0% 23% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses49 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage3d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day40.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records