Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c3a…cbe2 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14 (-31%) realized −$13 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day66.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$12
sports 9% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -29.5% -36.3% 41% 34% -37.9%
≤30d 29 -29.5% -36.3% 41% 34% -37.9%
≤90d 29 -29.5% -36.3% 41% 34% -37.9%
all 29 -29.5% -36.3% 41% 34% -37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.3% 34% -37.9%
10% ← realistic here -42.4% 21% -43.9%
15% -47.9% 17% -49.3%
20% -53.0% 14% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day66.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +84%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 72 history records