Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2c39…5f57 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 756d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$151 (+2%) realized +$137 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%26W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$234
14 days+$234
30 days+$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% +$321
other 30% −$27
crypto 26% −$352
sports 10% +$225
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +39.5% +26.3% 71% 65% +24.5%
≤30d 17 +39.5% +26.3% 71% 65% +24.5%
≤90d 17 +39.5% +26.3% 71% 65% +24.5%
all 50 +8.3% -2.0% 52% 42% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 42% -7.7%
10% -11.4% 34% -16.5%
15% -20.0% 26% -24.6%
20% -27.8% 22% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$36 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

756d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$137
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses26 / 24
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)50 / 56
History coverage756d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $40 $48 +$8 (+20%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 46¢ 60¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 52¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$25 +124%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$13 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $59 +$28 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$30 +146%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$20 +97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $202 +$69 +34%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$23 +57%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$66 +324%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 12 $58 +$5 +9%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 06 $20 +$4 +18%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 01 $29 +$14 +49%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 30 $20 +$11 +56%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 29 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Oct 20 $43 +$6 +15%
Will Sky win the USDH ticker? Oct 15 $41 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108K on September 1? Sep 05 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Ethereum hit $2,500 or $3,000 first? Feb 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Solana dip to $140 by February 28 2025? Feb 26 $308 −$308 -100%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Feb 21 $161 −$61 -38%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Feb 21 $170 −$9 -5%
Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7? Feb 19 $262 +$46 +18%
Solana above $215 on January 24? Feb 02 $196 +$65 +33%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? Jan 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech? Jan 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech? Jan 21 $120 +$13 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 20 $220 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Jan 13 $211 +$9 +4%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 10 $211 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first? Jan 09 $158 +$53 +33%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $1,257 +$350 +28%
Will another team win Blast Premier World Final 2024? Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will G2 win Blast Premier World Final 2024? Nov 04 $7 +$37 +525%
Will Vitality win Blast Premier World Final 2024? Nov 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 02 $1,332 −$24 -2%
Will NaVi win Blast Premier World Final 2024? Nov 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in October? Oct 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2024? Oct 28 $94 +$5 +5%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? May 22 $433 −$20 -5%
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? May 22 $80 −$3 -4%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? May 22 $184 −$2 -1%
Ethereum spot ETF approved by June 30? May 22 $40 −$2 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $20 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $39 24h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 44h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $20 44h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $20 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 74¢ $202 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $20 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 100¢ $87 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 23¢ $20 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $20 4d
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 92¢ $58 186d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) BUY FURIA 75¢ $20 186d
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 229d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.14 · official $149.14 (match) · 142 history records