Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:00:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2c39…56dc
world · 171 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$77,021 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$35,295 · open +$6,306
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$62,596
Realized+$35,295
Unrealized+$6,306
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses92 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions37
Markets (closed)152 / 171
Avg bet$8,217
Trades / day70.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 37 History 152 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,901
7 days−$5,687
14 days−$13,982
30 days−$5,571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 29¢ 40¢ $18,508 $26,056 +$7,548 (+41%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $13,142 $11,961 −$1,181 (-9%)
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $8,084 $9,049 +$965 (+12%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $5,516 $5,524 +$8 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,922 $2,917 −$5 (-0%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 82¢ 92¢ $1,861 $2,077 +$215 (+12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $1,624 $1,181 −$443 (-27%)
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 81¢ 68¢ $735 $621 −$113 (-15%)
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? No 90¢ 100¢ $552 $609 +$58 (+10%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 25¢ 12¢ $1,219 $596 −$623 (-51%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 28¢ 52¢ $233 $435 +$202 (+87%)
Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $347 $378 +$31 (+9%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $480 $213 −$267 (-56%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 77¢ 59¢ $264 $202 −$62 (-23%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes 85¢ 90¢ $189 $200 +$11 (+6%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 55¢ 91¢ $111 $182 +$71 (+64%)
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Up 61¢ 55¢ $174 $155 −$19 (-11%)
Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30? No 50¢ 98¢ $43 $84 +$41 (+97%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 57¢ 28¢ $65 $33 −$33 (-50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $22 $26 +$4 (+17%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $21 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $9 $21 +$12 (+133%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No 83¢ 90¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+8%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Up 70¢ 74¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 1¢ 63¢ $0 $13 +$13 (+5178%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $13,981 +$1,280 +9%
Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $133 +$127 +95%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $60 −$9 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 11 $620 −$24 -4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $1,136 −$64 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1,374 +$1,375 +100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $549 +$6 +1%
Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $778 +$211 +27%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $101 −$5 -5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $11,505 −$27 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 09 $6,471 +$58 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1,273 +$1,567 +123%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $1,837 +$1,021 +56%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $6,313 −$2,198 -35%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $2,679 +$98 +4%
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? Jun 09 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 08 $1,968 +$147 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 08 $2,885 −$385 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $19,305 −$13,219 -68%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $10,514 +$2,885 +27%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $2,516 +$1,329 +53%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $109 +$82 +75%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 08 $393 +$120 +31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $2,399 −$60 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 05 $80 +$2 +3%
Will Trump say "Europe" during coal announcement? Jun 04 $99 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $8,750 +$1,918 +22%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 21, 2026? Jun 04 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 22, 2026? Jun 04 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 23, 2026? Jun 04 $133 +$9 +7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $110,166 +$944 +1%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 2? Jun 03 $592 +$21 +4%
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $1,625 +$122 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $3,383 +$37 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $6,159 +$3,012 +49%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $256 −$256 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5,963 −$340 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9,158 +$793 +9%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $32 −$26 -80%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 01 $4,442 −$170 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? Jun 01 $5,508 −$308 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $28,799 +$1,182 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? Jun 01 $602 −$602 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $561 −$561 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 01 $59,172 −$4,027 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $66,561 −$10,996 -16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $13,600 +$905 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $175 +$63 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 63% +$39,490
politics 20% +$9,820
crypto 10% −$7,349
other 3% −$4,827
tech 2% +$6,907
finance 1% −$336
sports 1% −$2,107
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $3,748 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $563 4h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $158 5h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 5h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $306 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 27¢ $663 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $524 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 11h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $41 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $1,102 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $24 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 82¢ $1,861 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $3,333 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $16 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $374 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $11 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $706 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4,099 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 15¢ $235 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 15¢ $154 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 85¢ $2,683 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +14.0% +3.1% 58% 35% -15.3%
≤30d 130 +9.1% -1.3% 55% 25% -10.0%
≤90d 152 +12.5% +1.8% 61% 28% -6.8%
all 152 +12.5% +1.8% 61% 28% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover70.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.8% 28% -6.8%
10% -8.0% 25% -15.7%
15% ← realistic here -16.9% 20% -23.9%
20% -25.0% 16% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62,596.14 · official $62,595.98 (match) · 3500 history records