Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2c38…a15a
sports · 501 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$9,767 -48%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9,525 · open −$167
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,336
Realized−$9,525
Unrealized−$167
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses174 / 405
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions111
Markets (closed)579 / 501
History coverage65d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day47.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 111 History 579 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,065
7 days−$8,070
14 days−$7,974
30 days−$7,978
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $624 $619 −$5 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 83¢ $217 $279 +$63 (+29%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $241 $235 −$6 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 47¢ 46¢ $162 $160 −$2 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 17¢ $207 $102 −$105 (-51%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 48¢ 43¢ $96 $85 −$11 (-12%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $70 $64 −$6 (-9%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 53¢ 54¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $28 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 72¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-6%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $18 $18 −$1 (-4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 79¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Timberwolves vs. Bucks Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: AaB esport vs MANA eSports (BO3) - IstabuLAN Playoffs Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Pistons vs. Raptors Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Jun 12 $1 −$1 -68%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bulls vs. Lakers Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 12 $16 −$17 -104%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO5) - LCK Chal Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: RMD Gaming vs Ei Nerd Esports (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Jun 12 $92 −$92 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group St Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will CA Boston River win on 2026-04-07? Jun 12 $0 −$2 -2020%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-04-07? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Hornets vs. Timberwolves Jun 12 $0 $0 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Claude win the okbet trading competition? Jun 12 $24 −$33 -139%
Will GPT win the okbet trading competition? Jun 12 $1 −$12 -2421%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-04-04? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
76ers vs. Pelicans Jun 12 $42 −$44 -103%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 12 $205 −$213 -104%
Heat vs. Pelicans Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Jazz vs. Clippers Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ENCE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1: Closed Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -128%
Zhejiang Golden Bulls vs. Shanxi Loongs Jun 12 $74 −$74 -100%
Will SK Brann win on 2026-02-19? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Hornets vs. Kings Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group A Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs DRX (BO3) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: 4 SWINES & A BUM vs Ruddy Esports (BO1) - NLC Regular Season Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Sudan win on 2025-12-31? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -11893%
Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Hawks vs. Hornets Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Clippers vs. Lakers Jun 12 $4 −$5 -120%
Bucks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $0 +$15 +20930%
Mavericks vs. Hornets Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Nemiga (BO3) - A1 Gaming League Playoffs Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In Jun 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Jun 12 $2 −$4 -233%
Rockets vs. Wizards Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Berlin International Gaming vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st D Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 12 $4,489 −$4,489 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 52% −$809
other 32% −$265
crypto 13% −$125
politics 3% +$3
world 0% $0
economics 0% −$8
tech 0% −$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $5 5m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $5 11m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $130 17m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 18m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 19m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 22m
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $4 29m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 30m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 30m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 34m
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 44m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 46m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 47m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $5 51m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $10 52m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 58m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 59m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $9 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 1h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 196 -47.2% -52.3% 4% 4% -84.7%
≤30d 211 -42.0% -47.6% 5% 5% -81.3%
≤90d 579 -5.5% -14.5% 30% 24% -48.3%
all 579 -5.5% -14.5% 30% 24% -48.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover47.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 24% -48.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 22% -53.3%
15% -30.1% 18% -57.8%
20% -37.0% 15% -61.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,335.56 · official $2,290.53 · 3500 history records