Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:07:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2C 0x2c37…2e5b world 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+2%) realized +$58 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$68
finance 29% −$9
politics 8% +$19
other 4% −$7
sports 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 9 -32.6% -39.0% 33% 11% -7.0%
all 9 -32.6% -39.0% 33% 11% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.0% 11% -7.0%
10% -44.9% 0% -15.9%
15% -50.2% 0% -24.0%
20% -55.1% 0% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$5 · ×5.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.76 per $1 lost it wins $2.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage78d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $75 $67 −$7 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $20 −$2 -11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 01 $1,185 +$69 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Apr 23 $616 −$9 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 22 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 22 $15 −$14 -95%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Apr 17 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 16 $141 +$20 +14%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $28 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 18h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $29 21h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 50d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 51d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $620 58d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $607 66d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $607 66d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $616 66d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $616 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $15 67d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $19 67d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $18 67d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $18 67d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 73¢ $160 72d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? SELL No 20¢ $19 73d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No 21¢ $20 73d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $161 74d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $141 76d
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 76d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $419 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.40 · official $67.40 (match) · 23 history records