Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:41:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2C 0x2c35…006a sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$342 (+28%) realized +$343 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$113
7 days+$76
14 days+$373
30 days+$374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$66
sports 38% +$263
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -29.3% -36.1% 31% 31% +2.5%
≤30d 20 +28.4% +16.1% 50% 45% +34.0%
≤90d 20 +28.4% +16.1% 50% 45% +34.0%
all 32 +12.1% +1.5% 47% 41% +15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 41% +15.7%
10% -8.3% 41% +4.6%
15% -17.1% 41% -5.5%
20% -25.2% 31% -14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$22 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$343
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage204d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 −$6 -23%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$97 +189%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$142 +140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $53 −$52 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$83 +324%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$24 -68%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$121 +238%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$42 +276%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$64 +125%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 +$11 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +9%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Dec 30 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Dec 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $156 +$3 +2%
Will Villarreal CF vs. FC København end in a draw? Dec 10 $15 +$18 +117%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $25 +$19 +77%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Dec 09 $25 −$9 -35%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $35 +$18 +50%
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $25 +$11 +43%
Will Osasuna vs. Levante UD end in a draw? Dec 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Torino FC vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Dec 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-07? Dec 04 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $20 3h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 4h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 25h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $148 25h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $28 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 6d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 8d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 9d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $115 10d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 10d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $37 10d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 17d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 174d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 174d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.22 · official $49.22 (match) · 56 history records