Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:02:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

2C 0x2c32…36b0 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d

RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,524 (+32%) realized +$1,617 · open −$93

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip

Net edge+45%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%10W / 10L

Drawdown27%max

Avg bet$213per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit41%portable

Net worth$1,497now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$674

7 days+$1,133

14 days+$1,526

30 days+$1,526

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+44.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-9.1%	-17.8%	41%	41%	+26.4%
≤30d	19	+49.6%	+35.4%	47%	47%	+36.9%
≤90d	19	+49.6%	+35.4%	47%	47%	+36.9%
all	20	+60.0%	+44.7%	50%	50%	+43.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+44.7%	50%	+43.0%
10%	+30.9%	50%	+29.3%
15%	+18.2%	50%	+16.8%
20%	+6.6%	50%	+5.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +60% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +139% → late -19% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$227 vs −$49 · ×4.64 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.64 per $1 lost it wins $4.64

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage

Net worth$1,497

Realized+$1,617

Unrealized−$93

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses10 / 10

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions2

Markets (closed)20 / 22

History coverage149d

Avg bet$213

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown27%

Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	43¢	40¢	$1,585	$1,493	−$92 (-6%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Yes	8¢	6¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-19%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$1,031	+$586	+57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$41	+$88	+216%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$203	+$142	+70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$607	+$410	+67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 19	$31	−$31	-100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 19	$15	−$15	-100%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan	Jun 19	$4	−$4	-100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 19	$36	−$36	-100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10?	Jun 19	$99	−$99	-100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 19	$41	−$41	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 19	$197	−$197	-100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 19	$32	−$32	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$33	+$19	+57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$425	+$299	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Jun 17	$14	−$14	-100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$26	+$78	+307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$15	+$129	+836%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$101	+$265	+262%
Will Italy win?	Feb 07	$99	+$255	+257%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$1,612	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,617	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	63¢	$131	46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	63¢	$901	46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	31¢	$41	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$203	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$607	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$20	3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$31	3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$33	4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$425	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$4	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$5	6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$31	6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$104	6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$26	6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	13¢	$41	6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$144	7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	4¢	$6	7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	10¢	$15	7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	4¢	$26	7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$366	7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$197	9d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$101	9d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10?	BUY Yes	58¢	$99	134d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,497.24 · official $1,497.24 (match) · 52 history records