Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:30:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

2C 0x2c30…37b7 other 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$210 (-2%) realized −$87 · open −$123

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip

Net edge-41%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate33%3W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$150per market

Trades / day43.8pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$6,749now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-30.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-23.0%	-30.3%	33%	0%	-14.6%
≤30d	9	-23.0%	-30.3%	33%	0%	-14.6%
≤90d	9	-23.0%	-30.3%	33%	0%	-14.6%
all	9	-23.0%	-30.3%	33%	0%	-14.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover43.8 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-30.3%	0%	-14.6%
10% ← realistic here	-37.0%	0%	-22.8%
15%	-43.1%	0%	-30.2%
20%	-48.6%	0%	-37.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 75% · top 2 98% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -23% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$22 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.11 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$6,749

Realized−$87

Unrealized−$123

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses3 / 6

Open positions51

Markets (closed)9 / 60

History coverage2d

Avg bet$150

Trades / day43.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 51 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?	No	92¢	94¢	$1,500	$1,533	+$33 (+2%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?	No	100¢	100¢	$500	$499	−$1 (-0%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	93¢	90¢	$500	$488	−$12 (-2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?	No	89¢	72¢	$500	$406	−$94 (-19%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	No	95¢	93¢	$400	$392	−$8 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June?	No	78¢	71¢	$300	$274	−$26 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	No	70¢	86¢	$200	$246	+$46 (+23%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	No	94¢	98¢	$200	$208	+$8 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	95¢	98¢	$200	$207	+$7 (+3%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?	No	94¢	94¢	$200	$201	+$1 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?	No	100¢	100¢	$200	$200	+$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29?	Yes	98¢	98¢	$200	$200	−$0 (-0%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?	Down	71¢	62¢	$200	$177	−$23 (-12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29?	No	92¢	94¢	$100	$103	+$3 (+3%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $65 on June 29?	Yes	99¢	99¢	$100	$100	+$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 29?	No	88¢	88¢	$100	$100	+$0 (+0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?	No	99¢	100¢	$100	$100	+$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?	No	99¢	99¢	$100	$100	+$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	99¢	99¢	$100	$100	−$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	No	99¢	99¢	$100	$100	−$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	No	96¢	95¢	$100	$100	−$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in July?	No	97¢	97¢	$100	$100	−$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?	No	100¢	99¢	$100	$100	−$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June?	No	99¢	99¢	$100	$100	−$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 29?	No	97¢	96¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
GTA VI released before November 2026?	Jun 29	$501	$0	-0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28?	Jun 29	$500	+$3	+1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28?	Jun 29	$100	$0	+0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$110	+$11	+10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 28?	Jun 28	$10	−$10	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28?	Jun 28	$51	−$51	-100%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Jun 28	$100	$0	-0%
Will Bruno Fernandes stay at Manchester United?	Jun 28	$301	$0	-0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 27	$410	−$69	-17%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29?	BUY Yes	98¢	$100	16m
Will Kylian Mbappe score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	83¢	$101	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	45¢	$10	1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?	BUY No	96¢	$100	1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2	BUY No	97¢	$100	1h
GTA VI released before November 2026?	SELL No	96¢	$501	1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY No	96¢	$100	1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $65 on June 29?	BUY Yes	99¢	$100	1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29?	BUY Yes	98¢	$100	1h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 29?	BUY Yes	51¢	$40	1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 29?	BUY No	97¢	$100	1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 29?	BUY No	60¢	$51	1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 29?	BUY No	88¢	$101	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	BUY Yes	54¢	$5	14h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	BUY Yes	72¢	$5	14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	BUY Yes	45¢	$5	14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29?	BUY No	92¢	$101	14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	96¢	$100	15h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	SELL No	97¢	$100	15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY No	65¢	$7	22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28?	BUY Yes	77¢	$51	23h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	24h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY No	70¢	$204	25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	BUY No	94¢	$201	25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	BUY Yes	86¢	$10	25h
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?	BUY Yes	78¢	$10	25h
Will England win on 2026-07-01?	BUY Yes	78¢	$10	25h
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	77¢	$10	25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,748.56 · official $6,748.77 (match) · 81 history records