Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:29:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2C 0x2c2f…e27e other 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$136 (+21%) realized +$127 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$123
7 days+$119
14 days+$119
30 days+$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$115
sports 21% +$28
crypto 1% −$8
world 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +11.3% +0.7% 36% 36% +25.8%
≤30d 42 +11.3% +0.7% 36% 36% +25.8%
≤90d 42 +11.3% +0.7% 36% 36% +25.8%
all 42 +11.3% +0.7% 36% 36% +25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 36% +25.8%
10% -8.9% 36% +13.8%
15% -17.7% 36% +2.8%
20% -25.8% 36% -7.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$6 · ×3.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$266
Realized+$127
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions33
Markets (closed)42 / 92
History coverage10d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $10 $39 +$29 (+295%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+92%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-17%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? No 22¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 42¢ 36¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 46¢ 44¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-10%)
Will Cape Verde reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 35¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? No 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 40¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$44 +288%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 −$7 -57%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$19 +631%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 +$27 +534%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$72 +235%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 −$5 -31%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 +$5 +93%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? AN Jun 20 $4 +$8 +204%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 +$9 +180%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $3 −$2 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$22 +216%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-0 BUY 27¢ $9 44m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 45m
Will Cape Verde reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will Cape Verde reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 73¢ $30 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 57¢ $24 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $50 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $2 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $2 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 13¢ $6 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06 BUY 3¢ $5 2h
Will Cape Verde reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Will Cape Verde reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 56¢ $5 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 73¢ $12 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $5 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 53¢ $5 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 22¢ $5 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 46¢ $8 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.24 · official $297.24 · 174 history records