Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:25:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2C 0x2c2e…a948 sports 537 markets active 1h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,926 (-3%) realized −$1,889 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%238W / 297L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$302est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,589
7 days−$5,252
14 days−$5,252
30 days−$5,172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$1,418
other 12% −$485
world 1% −$503
finance 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -58.0% -62.0% 18% 18% -55.9%
≤30d 86 -55.2% -59.4% 19% 19% -55.0%
≤90d 251 -6.4% -15.3% 41% 41% -17.6%
all 535 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 44% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 44% -13.1%
10% -18.4% 44% -21.4%
15% -26.3% 43% -29.0%
20% -33.5% 42% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$110 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$1,889
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses238 / 297
Est. fees paid−$302
Open positions2
Markets (closed)535 / 537
History coverage193d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 535 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 42¢ 28¢ $113 $77 −$36 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $273 −$269 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $298 +$289 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $199 −$199 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $139 −$139 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $405 −$214 -53%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $203 +$213 +105%
Real Zaragoza vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
AS Roma vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-11? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $97 −$97 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Club Bolívar vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Macarthur FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $98 −$98 -100%
Viborg FF vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $97 −$97 -100%
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-04-05? Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
FC Andorra vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Torino FC vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
Viking FK vs. Rosenborg BK: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $201 −$201 -100%
CA Tigre vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $298 −$298 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
SS Lazio vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Vålerenga Fotball vs. Viking FK: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Sydney FC vs. Perth Glory FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Real Sporting de Gijón vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Antalyaspor vs. Konyaspor: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Gaziantep FK vs. Beşiktaş JK: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
AD Ceuta FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Melbourne City FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Elche CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. AEK: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $91 −$91 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $100 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $115 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $85 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $587 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $188 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $95 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $203 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $199 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $191 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 32¢ $191 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $214 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $416 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $139 9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $352 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $92 24h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $99 25h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $76 25h
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? SELL Yes 98¢ $57 25h
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? SELL Yes 98¢ $200 25h
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? SELL Yes 98¢ $20 25h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $200 26h
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $95 27h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $296 27h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $162 30h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 47h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 47h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $129 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $431 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $748 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.54 · official $173.56 (match) · 1469 history records