Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:04:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2C 0x2c2e…b55c sports 447 markets active 0h ago coverage 1138d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL +$972 (+4%) realized +$977 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%172W / 253L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$213est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$784
14 days+$1,123
30 days+$702
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$934
world 2% +$46
other 2% +$164
crypto 2% −$237
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +37.8% +24.6% 60% 56% +11.0%
≤30d 138 +7.2% -3.0% 52% 46% -5.9%
≤90d 381 -6.1% -15.1% 39% 35% -5.5%
all 425 -5.0% -14.1% 40% 36% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 36% -6.1%
10% -22.3% 32% -15.1%
15% -29.8% 28% -23.3%
20% -36.7% 26% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$14 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1138d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$977
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses172 / 253
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$213
Open positions22
Markets (closed)425 / 447
History coverage1138d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 425 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 59¢ 38¢ $149 $94 −$55 (-37%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 37¢ 24¢ $37 $24 −$13 (-34%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+34%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 56¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Zachary Svajda 22¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 8¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $189 +$96 +51%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $21 +$6 +28%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $34 +$41 +121%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $0 $0 +567%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $33 −$32 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $64 +$36 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $106 +$124 +117%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 14 $66 −$66 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $73 −$73 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $8 +$38 +488%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $23 +$17 +70%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $15 +$23 +153%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $39 +$61 +155%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $27 +$13 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $26 +$23 +89%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $222 +$78 +35%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $18 +$12 +67%
Set Handicap: Mannarino (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $258 +$15 +6%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $10 −$4 -40%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $14 +$11 +73%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 202 Jun 12 $10 +$19 +191%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$32 +158%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $151 +$49 +32%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $96 +$52 +54%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Landaluce (+1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$9 +525%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $44 −$1 -2%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $202 +$8 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $24 −$4 -18%
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 11 $77 +$72 +94%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $83 +$22 +27%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $43 −$23 -54%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $24 −$5 -22%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $30 +$35 +114%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $61 +$39 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $7 16m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $14 24m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 33m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 33m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $8 33m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $19 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $32 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $107 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $19 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $14 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $56 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $111 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 7¢ $2 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 9¢ $4 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 51¢ $27 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $21 6h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt SELL Mattia Bellucci 75¢ $75 8h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Mattia Bellucci 34¢ $34 9h
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch SELL Tom Gentzsch 2¢ $0 9h
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch SELL Tom Gentzsch 2¢ $0 9h
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Tom Gentzsch 0¢ $0 9h
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Tom Gentzsch 1¢ $0 9h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 15¢ $8 11h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 25¢ $12 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.39 · official $183.39 (match) · 1723 history records