Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2C 0x2c2c…90d4 crypto 324 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,612 (-11%) realized −$4,612 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%130W / 194L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,447
7 days−$1,447
14 days−$952
30 days−$613
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$5,030
sports 30% −$153
other 20% +$214
world 7% −$432
politics 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -74.6% -77.0% 15% 15% -56.5%
≤30d 63 -22.8% -30.1% 38% 38% -21.9%
≤90d 236 -16.0% -24.0% 39% 36% -33.9%
all 324 -5.4% -14.4% 40% 39% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 39% -24.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 36% -31.7%
15% -30.1% 34% -38.3%
20% -36.9% 31% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$110 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,612
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses130 / 194
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions0
Markets (closed)324 / 324
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$124
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 324 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $55 +$45 +82%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 23 $116 +$53 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET Jun 23 $98 +$16 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $15 −$13 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $133 −$36 -27%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $156 +$40 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jong (+2.5) Jun 23 $29 −$24 -81%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 23 $49 −$49 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? Jun 23 $56 −$56 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 23 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 23 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 23 $201 −$201 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 23 $167 +$37 +22%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 23 $220 −$104 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 23 $193 −$193 -100%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 23 $174 −$174 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? Jun 23 $208 +$125 +60%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $53 +$47 +89%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $109 +$177 +163%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $53 +$57 +108%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $33 +$20 +61%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $57 +$43 +75%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $54 +$46 +85%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $191 +$104 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $26 −$9 -36%
Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $27 −$27 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $48 −$16 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 55¢ $28 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 55¢ $28 1h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Luciano Darderi 57¢ $169 1h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Luciano Darderi 38¢ $116 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $58 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? SELL No 0¢ $3 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL No 13¢ $30 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL No 13¢ $68 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 13¢ $20 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 13¢ $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 13¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 13¢ $3 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 13¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 13¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 13¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 13¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records