Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c2c…7bc9 crypto 163 markets active 5d ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$387 (-25%) realized −$387 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%53W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$50
14 days−$77
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$526
other 5% +$88
sports 2% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -38.2% -44.1% 30% 30% -53.9%
≤30d 15 -57.6% -61.6% 20% 20% -63.3%
≤90d 139 -22.0% -29.5% 34% 33% -40.3%
all 163 -24.3% -31.5% 33% 32% -37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 32% -37.7%
10% -38.0% 31% -43.7%
15% -44.0% 28% -49.1%
20% -49.5% 24% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$387
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses53 / 110
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)163 / 163
History coverage138d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 163 Trades
no open positions (92 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$10 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +190%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$8 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 17 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 17 $41 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 17 $36 −$20 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 +$6 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 17 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 17 $3 $0 +6%
Will Kasımpaşa SK vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? May 17 $9 −$3 -29%
Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Eyüpspor end in a draw? May 17 $4 +$4 +101%
Will Trabzonspor vs. Gençlerbirliği SK end in a draw? May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 17 $1 +$2 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 17 $11 −$10 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 17 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 17 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 16 $3 −$2 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 16 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 16 $9 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 16 $13 +$14 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 16 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 16 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 16 $4 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 16 $3 +$4 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Gaziantep FK win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2 +$4 +176%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 441 history records