Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:09:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

2C 0x2c26…7a33 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 194d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$111 (+8%) realized +$103 · open +$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR63%break-even

Win rate63%12W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$63per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$129

7 days+$127

14 days+$84

30 days+$84

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +63%

net ROI/market (all)+3.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+35.9%	+23.0%	75%	75%	+1.1%
≤30d	18	+20.8%	+9.3%	67%	67%	-2.8%
≤90d	18	+20.8%	+9.3%	67%	67%	-2.8%
all	19	+14.5%	+3.6%	63%	63%	-3.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.6%	63%	-3.6%
10%	-6.3%	58%	-12.8%
15%	-15.4%	53%	-21.2%
20%	-23.7%	42%	-29.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 29% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +10% → late +19% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$37 vs −$54 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.2 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage

Net worth$177

Realized+$103

Unrealized+$8

Win rate (resolved)63%

Wins / losses12 / 7

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions2

Markets (closed)19 / 21

History coverage194d

Avg bet$63

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	47¢	48¢	$125	$126	+$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$44	$50	+$6 (+15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$87	+$45	+51%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$58	+$17	+29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$40	+$23	+57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$18	+$20	+109%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$32	−$31	-98%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama?	Jun 18	$40	+$56	+140%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$100	−$98	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$110	+$67	+61%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$76	−$73	-96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$49	+$20	+40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$125	+$23	+18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$150	+$63	+42%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$127	−$120	-95%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$40	+$44	+109%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5	Jun 14	$15	+$25	+170%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$32	+$47	+149%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$21	−$20	-95%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 11	$25	−$23	-95%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?	Dec 08	$9	−$9	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$127	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	63¢	$87	6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	77¢	$58	27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$40	30h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	47¢	$18	31h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$32	38h
Ghana to score first vs. Panama?	BUY Yes	41¢	$40	2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$100	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$110	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$76	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	86¢	$50	3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	78¢	$75	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$49	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$76	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$75	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	29¢	$76	4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	65¢	$50	4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	47¢	$40	5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5	BUY Over	35¢	$15	5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	38¢	$32	7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	53¢	$21	7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$22	8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$24	8d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	44¢	$25	8d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?	BUY Yes	37¢	$9	193d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.75 · official $176.75 (match) · 46 history records