Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:24:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c25…87c0 crypto 420 markets active 2h ago coverage 513d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-1%) realized −$78 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate50%206W / 205L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 40% +$280
crypto 36% −$115
sports 17% −$338
other 3% +$34
politics 3% −$6
tech 1% +$17
finance 0% −$1
world 0% −$9
economics 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 411 -6.0% -14.9% 50% 35% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 35% -10.8%
10% -23.1% 25% -19.3%
15% -30.5% 18% -27.1%
20% -37.3% 14% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

513d coverage
Net worth$325
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses206 / 205
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)411 / 420
History coverage513d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 411 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman? No 64¢ 65¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+2%)
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026? No 65¢ 86¢ $52 $68 +$17 (+32%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? No 91¢ 90¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 88¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 90¢ 86¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? No 80¢ 81¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+2%)
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 57¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? No 14¢ 14¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks Mar 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15? Mar 16 $41 +$34 +84%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Mar 16 $10 +$20 +203%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on March 15 Mar 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 15 Mar 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ma Mar 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on March 14 Mar 15 $29 +$10 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on March 14 Mar 15 $44 +$105 +240%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ma Mar 15 $176 +$48 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 14 Mar 14 $90 −$58 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 14 Mar 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 14 Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ma Mar 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 14 Mar 14 $56 −$6 -11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ma Mar 14 $82 −$77 -94%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ma Mar 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 13 Mar 14 $69 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 13 Mar 14 $257 +$92 +36%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Ma Mar 14 $18 −$9 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on March 13 Mar 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 13 Mar 13 $24 −$6 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 13 Mar 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Ma Mar 13 $17 −$12 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 13 Mar 13 $38 −$32 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 13? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on March 13 Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 12 Mar 13 $88 +$97 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 12 Mar 13 $51 −$35 -69%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Mar 07 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Ma Mar 07 $47 +$85 +182%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Ma Mar 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 6? Mar 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 6? Mar 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 5? Mar 06 $6 +$36 +567%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 5? Mar 05 $66 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 5? Mar 05 $9 −$3 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 5? Mar 05 $113 +$15 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 5? Mar 05 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 5? Mar 05 $52 −$14 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 4? Mar 05 $31 +$49 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 4? Mar 05 $101 +$29 +28%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Mar 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on Mar Mar 04 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Ma Mar 04 $37 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Ma Mar 04 $39 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Ma Mar 04 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Ma Mar 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Ma Mar 03 $5 +$5 +108%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Ma Mar 02 $15 +$14 +92%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Ma Mar 02 $34 +$3 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $3 1h
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026 BUY No 64¢ $13 1h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $9 1h
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026 BUY No 65¢ $40 1h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 90¢ $36 1h
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $27 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 91¢ $37 2h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $19 2h
Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman? BUY No 64¢ $71 2h
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks BUY Kansas Jayhawks 39¢ $31 97d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $4 103d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15? SELL Yes 60¢ $5 103d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 103d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 103d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 104d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on March 15 BUY Yes 42¢ $7 104d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 104d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15? SELL No 66¢ $2 104d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15? SELL No 66¢ $4 104d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15? SELL No 66¢ $3 104d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15? SELL No 66¢ $3 104d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15? SELL No 66¢ $3 104d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15? SELL No 66¢ $7 104d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15? SELL No 67¢ $3 104d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15? BUY No 11¢ $2 104d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on March 15 BUY Yes 40¢ $9 104d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on March 15 BUY Yes 40¢ $3 104d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15? SELL No 8¢ $0 104d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15? SELL No 8¢ $2 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $324.88 · official $324.89 (match) · 2800 history records