Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

2C 0x2c17…38ef sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$224 (+23%) realized +$223 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip

Net edge+18%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate67%10W / 5L

Drawdown52%max

Avg bet$55per market

Trades / day16.0pace

Fees−$16est.

Kalshi-fit78%portable

Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+27.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+40.7%	+27.3%	67%	60%	+12.6%
≤30d	15	+40.7%	+27.3%	67%	60%	+12.6%
≤90d	15	+40.7%	+27.3%	67%	60%	+12.6%
all	15	+40.7%	+27.3%	67%	60%	+12.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover16.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+27.3%	60%	+12.6%
10%	+15.1%	47%	+1.9%
15%	+4.0%	33%	-8.0%
20%	-6.2%	27%	-17.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 47% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +41% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +78% → late +8% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$36 vs −$35 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$214

Realized+$223

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses10 / 5

Est. fees paid−$16

Open positions3

Markets (closed)15 / 18

History coverage2d

Avg bet$55

Trades / day16.0

Drawdown52%

Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Spain	76¢	78¢	$101	$104	+$3 (+3%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$101	$99	−$2 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$11	$11	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 15	$21	−$20	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Jun 15	$10	+$2	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 15	$21	+$4	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Jun 15	$31	+$12	+37%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$102	+$80	+78%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	Jun 15	$52	−$40	-77%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 15	$72	+$16	+23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$62	+$37	+60%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$19	+$3	+18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$101	+$4	+4%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$52	−$6	-12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$51	+$36	+70%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Jun 14	$103	−$92	-89%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Jun 14	$52	−$17	-32%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Jun 13	$29	+$171	+590%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$21	25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$10	1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	SELL Up	94¢	$24	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$24	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$20	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	SELL Up	55¢	$18	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$11	2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$104	2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Spain	76¢	$103	5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	94¢	$182	5h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	7¢	$12	6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$102	7h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$52	7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	SELL Yes	63¢	$63	8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	49¢	$51	8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	SELL Yes	44¢	$25	8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$21	11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	77¢	$99	11h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	35¢	$22	12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	46¢	$62	14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$105	14h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$19	24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$101	26h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	4¢	$46	26h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$52	27h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$87	27h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	SELL Yes	3¢	$11	27h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	27h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.16 · official $214.16 (match) · 37 history records