Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c17…d983 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$3 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$1,267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$30
crypto 8% −$4
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -27.5% -34.4% 50% 50% -49.9%
≤30d 2 -27.5% -34.4% 50% 50% -49.9%
≤90d 2 -27.5% -34.4% 50% 50% -49.9%
all 2 -27.5% -34.4% 50% 50% -49.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 50% -49.9%
10% -40.7% 50% -54.7%
15% -46.4% 50% -59.1%
20% -51.7% 0% -63.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$26 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,267
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions20
Markets (closed)2 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 65¢ $387 $385 −$2 (-1%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $210 $209 −$1 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 31¢ $160 $155 −$5 (-3%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $120 $116 −$4 (-3%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $110 $106 −$4 (-3%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+33%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $45 $40 −$5 (-11%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 45¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? No 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$7 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $35 1h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 1h
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 1h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $41 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 1h
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $203 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $123 1h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $174 1h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $284 1h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $284 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 20¢ $10 1h
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,266.74 · official $1,266.07 (match) · 36 history records