Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c15…ee6c sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-3%) realized −$50 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$48
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -5.8% -14.7% 0% 0% -14.7%
≤30d 1 -5.8% -14.7% 0% 0% -14.7%
≤90d 1 -5.8% -14.7% 0% 0% -14.7%
all 1 -5.8% -14.7% 0% 0% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 0% -14.7%
10% -22.9% 0% -22.9%
15% -30.4% 0% -30.4%
20% -37.2% 0% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 23¢ 57¢ $15 $37 +$22 (+150%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Cabo Verde 22¢ 48¢ $15 $32 +$17 (+116%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Under 32¢ 68¢ $15 $31 +$16 (+111%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Over 5¢ 2¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 5¢ $15 59m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 23¢ $15 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 32¢ $15 3h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 22¢ $15 4h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 50¢ $1 18h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 51¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.15 · official $106.15 (match) · 6 history records