Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2c14…b38d
sports · 9 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$2 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open +$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage9d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 3 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 99¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+107%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 58¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score No 62¢ 76¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $20 +$4 +22%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $10 +$4 +37%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $20 +$10 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% −$10
crypto 19% +$4
other 14% +$6
world 9% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $5 35m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 7h
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $15 4d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 72¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 4d
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 5d
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $31 5d
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $20 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -31.7% -38.2% 50% 50% -22.8%
≤30d 6 -31.7% -38.2% 50% 50% -22.8%
≤90d 6 -31.7% -38.2% 50% 50% -22.8%
all 6 -31.7% -38.2% 50% 50% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 50% -22.8%
10% -44.1% 33% -30.2%
15% -49.5% 33% -37.0%
20% -54.5% 17% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.43 · official $34.43 (match) · 15 history records