Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c11…0a6c other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$22
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$22
politics 22% −$11
crypto 15% −$7
sports 12% −$4
finance 8% −$6
economics 8% −$2
world 5% −$5
culture 3% $0
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 63 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 117 -0.4% -9.8% 10% 0% -9.8%
all 129 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage99d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $66 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $92 −$2 -2%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $162 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 13 $47 −$1 -3%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $53 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 12 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $611 −$4 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $248 −$1 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $98 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $59 $0 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $148 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 09 $41 +$1 +2%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 07 $2 $0 +6%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 06 $111 −$2 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $153 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $297 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 05 $56 −$2 -3%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $50 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $155 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $86 $0 -0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $65 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $93 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $45 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $57 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $104 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 30 $58 −$1 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $154 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $37 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? May 28 $50 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $59 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $54 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $259 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 10h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 93¢ $42 10h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $43 15h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 16h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 23h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $54 24h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $54 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $41 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $22 36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $19 36h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $49 37h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 41h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 41h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 41h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 46h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $36 47h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $37 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $48 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 97¢ $11 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 97¢ $38 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $55 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $55 3d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $51 3d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $51 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 89¢ $46 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $47 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.79 · official $45.79 (match) · 490 history records