Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:02:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2c11…ef93 other 267 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,113 (+8%) realized +$1,077 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate64%162W / 90L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$711now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$690
7 days+$582
14 days+$601
30 days+$857
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$1,305
sports 27% −$111
world 17% −$104
crypto 10% +$51
politics 3% −$84
finance 1% +$6
tech 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +16.3% +5.2% 45% 41% +21.1%
≤30d 76 +5.8% -4.3% 58% 43% +5.6%
≤90d 252 +4.2% -5.8% 64% 41% -2.2%
all 252 +4.2% -5.8% 64% 41% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 41% -2.2%
10% -14.8% 29% -11.6%
15% -23.0% 20% -20.1%
20% -30.6% 15% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$27 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$711
Realized+$1,077
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses162 / 90
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions15
Markets (closed)252 / 267
History coverage52d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 20¢ 36¢ $70 $128 +$57 (+81%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $105 $102 −$2 (-2%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 55¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $88 $80 −$8 (-9%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 27¢ 38¢ $54 $75 +$21 (+39%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $33 $26 −$7 (-20%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No 5¢ 11¢ $8 $17 +$9 (+120%)
Epic Games IPO before 2027? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $19 $14 −$5 (-24%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $22 $12 −$10 (-43%)
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $26 $12 −$14 (-55%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $8 $10 +$3 (+35%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+31%)
Will George Pickens play for Indianapolis Colts in 2026-27? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $50 −$23 -46%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-16 House seat? Jun 17 $93 −$3 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$49 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $220 +$779 +354%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $46 −$32 -69%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Jun 16 $84 +$12 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $51 −$47 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $127 +$23 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $52 −$43 -82%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 13 $61 −$59 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $48 +$52 +108%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $32 +$143 +444%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $131 −$56 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $87 +$13 +15%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $73 −$1 -2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 11 $56 +$4 +7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $52 −$27 -52%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $59 −$44 -75%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 10 $70 +$68 +96%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $93 +$7 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $59 +$41 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $60 +$40 +67%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $186 +$14 +7%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $83 +$17 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 09 $87 −$87 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $46 +$14 +30%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $28 +$50 +180%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $78 +$22 +28%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $13 −$8 -60%
Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary elec Jun 08 $6 +$1 +17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $65 −$29 -44%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $120 +$60 +50%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $168 +$32 +19%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $91 −$5 -6%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $95 −$3 -3%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $44 −$33 -74%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 05 $93 −$21 -23%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 05 $118 −$19 -16%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 05 $69 −$27 -39%
Will Slovenia vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 04 $77 +$23 +30%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 04 $64 +$9 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Jun 03 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 02 $42 −$35 -85%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $53 +$19 +36%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $84 −$51 -60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $158 −$18 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $104 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $92 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $109 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $27 1h
Will the Republican Party win the CA-16 House seat? SELL Yes 6¢ $90 8h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $14 18h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $96 25h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $42 26h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 27h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 27h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 27h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 27h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 28h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 29h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $711.15 · official $711.15 (match) · 854 history records