Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2c0b…c880 sports 238 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$147 (+17%) realized +$147 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%134W / 102L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$37
14 days+$27
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$85
other 20% +$52
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 50% +17.5%
≤30d 52 -10.8% -19.3% 46% 44% +2.0%
≤90d 233 +10.8% +0.3% 57% 57% +6.9%
all 236 +10.0% -0.5% 57% 56% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 56% +5.2%
10% -10.0% 56% -4.9%
15% -18.7% 52% -14.1%
20% -26.7% 48% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses134 / 102
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)236 / 238
History coverage103d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 55¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $2 +$3 +114%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $9 +$6 +67%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +101%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $7 +$8 +119%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $9 +$6 +60%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +105%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $4 +$4 +83%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $4 +$1 +24%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $2 +$3 +114%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$8 +114%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $13 +$12 +93%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $9 +$16 +180%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $3 +$2 +73%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $3 +$2 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 08 $6 +$4 +65%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $5 +$5 +109%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $6 $0 +8%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $6 +$9 +140%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5 Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Madison Keys vs Cristina Bucsa May 18 $4 −$1 -37%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $2 +$3 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 27m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $3 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 22h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $2 27h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $3 28h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $3 28h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $3 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 30h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 32h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 41¢ $2 33h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $2 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $2 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $2 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $2 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $4 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 62¢ $3 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 62¢ $3 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 61¢ $3 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Lorenzo Sonego 63¢ $3 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $3 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $3 3d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Emma Raducanu 80¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.22 · official $11.22 (match) · 556 history records