Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2C 0x2c0a…4506 crypto 838 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$251 (-4%) realized −$251 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate64%532W / 305L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day44.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$135
14 days−$135
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$279
other 2% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -54.7% -59.0% 41% 6% -65.9%
≤30d 276 -24.4% -31.6% 63% 14% -27.7%
≤90d 837 -9.8% -18.4% 64% 13% -14.4%
all 837 -9.8% -18.4% 64% 13% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 13% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 8% -22.6%
15% -33.3% 6% -30.0%
20% -39.8% 4% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$251
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses532 / 305
Open positions1
Markets (closed)837 / 838
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day44.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 837 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 96¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.96 · official $0.52 (match) · 3500 history records