Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:39:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c09…d0c3 crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$78 (+18%) realized +$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$31
sports 21% −$36
other 5% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +3.2% -6.6% 48% 48% -22.0%
≤30d 21 +3.2% -6.6% 48% 48% -22.0%
≤90d 21 +3.2% -6.6% 48% 48% -22.0%
all 21 +3.2% -6.6% 48% 48% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 48% -22.0%
10% -15.5% 48% -29.4%
15% -23.7% 43% -36.2%
20% -31.2% 29% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$23 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $37 +$18 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$52 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$27 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$7 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$50 +190%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 +$5 +23%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 +$10 +48%
Edin Džeko: 1+ shots Jun 19 $20 +$7 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 10h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $51 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $20 2d
Edin Džeko: 1+ shots BUY Yes 73¢ $20 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records