Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:48:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2C 0x2c07…d258 crypto 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,432 (-2%) realized −$1,432 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate69%75W / 34L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$539per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$116
14 days−$44
30 days−$1,615
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$1,606
sports 3% −$30
other 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -28.4% -35.2% 45% 36% -29.4%
≤30d 56 -12.9% -21.2% 64% 27% -19.2%
≤90d 109 -9.5% -18.1% 69% 24% -12.0%
all 109 -9.5% -18.1% 69% 24% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 24% -12.0%
10% -25.9% 14% -20.4%
15% -33.1% 10% -28.1%
20% -39.6% 6% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$86 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$1,432
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses75 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)109 / 112
History coverage59d
Avg bet$539
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $117 +$7 +6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $51 −$10 -20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $105 +$13 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$8 +76%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $41 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$4 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$27 +262%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$7 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $245 +$5 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$14 +68%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $143 +$4 +3%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $200 +$17 +8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $100 +$10 +10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $419 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 06 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +5%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$28 +28%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $101 +$28 +27%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $108 +$16 +14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $71 −$13 -18%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 Jun 04 $30 +$3 +9%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $20 −$2 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,003 −$723 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $2,039 −$1,018 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $2,439 +$40 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $1,347 +$21 +2%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $61 −$32 -53%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $1,001 +$15 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 58m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 58m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 48¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 43¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 54¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 46¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 38¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 35¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 67¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 66¢ $91 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 53¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 55¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 61¢ $40 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 91¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 79¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 28¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 76¢ $35 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 64¢ $30 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 34¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 82¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 79¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 21¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 60¢ $112 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 53¢ $101 6h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 50¢ $43 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 38¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 42¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 53¢ $10 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.78 · official $29.78 (match) · 313 history records