Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:52:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c04…019c other 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 225L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$19
14 days−$26
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$35
sports 24% −$22
economics 8% −$6
crypto 8% −$5
politics 7% −$5
culture 7% −$4
world 4% −$4
finance 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 236 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)236 / 237
History coverage130d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $169 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $550 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $179 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 19 $356 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $297 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $277 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $669 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $523 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $238 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $107 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $355 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $297 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $319 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $392 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $251 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $155 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $159 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 15 $289 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $108 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $358 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $386 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $105 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $230 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $178 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $543 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $586 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $125 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $340 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $117 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $198 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 07 $437 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $214 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $48 1h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 1h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $48 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 5h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 7h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 8h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 10h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $42 10h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $6 11h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $48 13h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 13h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 14h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $48 17h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $48 19h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $48 20h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 22h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 23h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 25h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $49 26h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $49 28h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 29h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 31h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 32h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 33h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 38h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 40h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 41h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 42h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 45h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.75 · official $47.75 (match) · 1366 history records