Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:52:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c01…e01b sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$60 (-3%) realized −$89 · open +$29
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%7W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$578now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$156
7 days+$180
14 days−$130
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$273
other 25% +$177
tech 15% −$296
finance 10% −$203
world 2% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +23.0% +11.3% 30% 30% +3.8%
≤30d 27 +5.0% -5.0% 26% 26% -17.1%
≤90d 27 +5.0% -5.0% 26% 26% -17.1%
all 27 +5.0% -5.0% 26% 26% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 26% -17.1%
10% -14.1% 26% -25.0%
15% -22.4% 26% -32.3%
20% -30.0% 26% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$44 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$578
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses7 / 20
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions16
Markets (closed)27 / 43
History coverage8d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $105 $139 +$34 (+32%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $40 +$189 +474%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $56 −$52 -93%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$86 +169%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$39 -76%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $56 +$147 +262%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$38 -74%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $56 +$157 +279%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 ( Jun 12 $102 −$98 -96%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $51 −$3 -5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $56 −$4 -8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $56 +$89 +160%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $200 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -54%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Jun 10 $207 −$195 -94%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 10 $108 −$105 -97%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 2h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 2h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 2h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes $4 26h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $137 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $40 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $12 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes $13 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $577.75 · official $577.76 (match) · 77 history records