Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:28:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bff…1fbb other 106 markets active 57d ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$1,309 (+0%) realized +$1,312 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate63%57W / 33L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$9,910per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 52% −$564
other 44% −$459
economics 3% −$30
sports 1% +$2,370
politics 0% −$3
world 0% +$3
culture 0% −$5
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 30 +6.4% -3.7% 77% 23% -9.5%
all 90 -8.0% -16.7% 63% 30% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 30% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 18% -18.1%
15% -32.0% 6% -26.0%
20% -38.6% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$36 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$1,312
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses57 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Open positions16
Markets (closed)90 / 106
History coverage60d
Avg bet$9,910
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? No 75¢ 78¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 70¢ 49¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026? No 88¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 31¢ 51¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+65%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 87¢ 36¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? No 85¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 86¢ 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 58¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 04 $5 $0 +6%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 04 $1 $0 -1%
NCAA Tournament: Player to record triple-double? May 04 $1 $0 +5%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t May 04 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30? May 04 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? May 04 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 06 $1,115 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 06 $1,721 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 06 $1,615 −$2 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? Apr 05 $2 −$1 -48%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $1 $0 +27%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March? Apr 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Apr 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? Apr 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Governatori win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Apr 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gros Apr 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on Ma Apr 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League final? Apr 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $5 $0 +8%
Will Leverkusen reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Apr 05 $5 $0 +9%
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $5 $0 +10%
Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election? Apr 05 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $5 +$1 +23%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 05 $5 +$1 +31%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Apr 05 $11 −$1 -9%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? Apr 05 $10 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 20 $9,986 −$10 -0%
Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? Mar 20 $25 $0 +2%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 19 $379,207 −$380 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 19 $168,685 −$184 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 19 $444,512 −$445 -0%
Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. Prairie View A&M Panthers Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Mar 17 $1 $0 +0%
North Korea missile test/launch by March 31? Mar 17 $2 $0 -22%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 2? Mar 17 $2 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 9? Mar 17 $2 $0 +3%
US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026? Mar 17 $2 $0 +8%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 13? Mar 17 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 13 Mar 17 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 9 above $50? Mar 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 9 above $2.00? Mar 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 9? Mar 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 9 above $3.00? Mar 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during Monday press conference? Mar 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 9 above $375? Mar 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 56d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $1 56d
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 56d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL No 100¢ $609 84d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $609 84d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL No 100¢ $609 84d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $610 84d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $610 84d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $610 84d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL No 100¢ $611 84d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $611 84d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $1,004 85d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $1,005 85d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL No 100¢ $499 89d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL No 100¢ $505 89d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $506 89d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $500 89d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $4,986 101d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $4,991 101d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $4,991 101d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $4,996 101d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL No 100¢ $4,996 102d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $5,001 102d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma SELL No 100¢ $8,201 102d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $8,209 102d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma SELL No 100¢ $8,209 102d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $8,217 102d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma SELL No 100¢ $8,217 102d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $8,225 102d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL No 100¢ $8,225 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.94 · official $63.94 (match) · 592 history records