Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2bfe…496f world 8 markets active 5d ago coverage 103d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$680 (-15%) realized −$417 · open −$263
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$560per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% −$590
finance 2% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 6 +14.9% +4.0% 50% 50% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.0% 50% -18.6%
10% -6.0% 33% -26.3%
15% -15.1% 33% -33.5%
20% -23.4% 17% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$240 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$417
Unrealized−$263
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage103d
Avg bet$560
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $200 $27 −$173 (-86%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $100 $9 −$91 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 16 $512 +$87 +17%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 14 $2,567 −$188 -7%
US forces enter Iran by March 3? Mar 03 $700 −$508 -73%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $200 +$81 +40%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Feb 28 $100 −$24 -24%
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $100 +$136 +136%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $200 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $104 23d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $598 92d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $512 92d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $512 94d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $848 98d
US forces enter Iran by March 3? SELL Yes 0¢ $48 105d
US forces enter Iran by March 3? BUY Yes 2¢ $200 105d
US forces enter Iran by March 3? BUY Yes 2¢ $200 105d
US forces enter Iran by March 3? SELL Yes 3¢ $144 106d
US forces enter Iran by March 3? BUY Yes 7¢ $300 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $1,356 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,219 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $511 108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 28¢ $281 108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 108d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $76 108d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 108d
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $236 108d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $500 108d
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $100 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.62 · official $36.62 (match) · 22 history records