Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:22:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2bfa…8b61 sports 153 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$376 (+2%) realized +$461 · open −$85
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%83W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$207est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$317
7 days+$87
14 days−$321
30 days−$417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$191
crypto 1% +$28
other 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +11.4% +0.8% 54% 54% -6.9%
≤30d 95 -5.6% -14.6% 51% 51% -12.4%
≤90d 152 +7.5% -2.8% 55% 55% -8.4%
all 152 +7.5% -2.8% 55% 55% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 55% -8.4%
10% -12.1% 54% -17.1%
15% -20.6% 53% -25.1%
20% -28.4% 48% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$99 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$461
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses83 / 69
Est. fees paid−$207
Open positions1
Markets (closed)152 / 153
History coverage49d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 26¢ $200 $115 −$85 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $102 +$107 +105%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $203 +$168 +83%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$84 +83%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $101 +$68 +67%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $202 +$131 +65%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 +$187 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $203 +$174 +86%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $203 +$197 +97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $101 +$87 +86%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $101 +$48 +48%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $51 +$77 +152%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $101 +$84 +83%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $194 +$115 +60%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $101 +$80 +79%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $202 −$200 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $101 +$77 +76%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $101 +$103 +101%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $233 +$198 +85%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $152 −$150 -99%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $216 −$214 -99%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $503 +$126 +25%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $203 +$154 +76%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $152 −$150 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $152 −$150 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $51 +$65 +129%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $152 +$136 +90%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $152 +$94 +62%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $152 +$116 +76%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 Jun 03 $101 +$77 +76%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $152 +$79 +52%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 03 $202 +$127 +63%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $203 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $101 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 3h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 64¢ $101 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 14h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $203 14h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) BUY Athletics 40¢ $51 22h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $102 26h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 36¢ $82 30h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $203 37h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ $101 46h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 54¢ $203 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $101 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 27¢ $51 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 60¢ $202 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $51 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $51 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $102 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $101 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $203 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $203 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $101 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $203 5d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 67¢ $101 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 56¢ $51 6d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 55¢ $101 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $51 6d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $194 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.62 · official $114.62 (match) · 255 history records