Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bf8…5686 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$258 (-29%) realized −$256 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$8
14 days−$325
30 days−$332
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% −$317
other 27% −$5
sports 2% −$5
crypto 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -2.6% -11.9% 36% 29% -14.4%
≤30d 17 -12.4% -20.7% 29% 24% -47.5%
≤90d 17 -12.4% -20.7% 29% 24% -47.5%
all 17 -12.4% -20.7% 29% 24% -47.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 24% -47.5%
10% -28.3% 24% -52.5%
15% -35.2% 24% -57.1%
20% -41.6% 12% -61.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$31 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$256
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)17 / 24
History coverage53d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 80¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals Yes 36¢ 38¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals Yes 34¢ 32¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$14 +36%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $11 −$8 -74%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $24 +$10 +40%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 −$1 -32%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$9 +166%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$5 +267%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $626 −$317 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$1 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $10 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 73¢ $40 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $21 3h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $24 11h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 12h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 22h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 22h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 25h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 25h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 25h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 51¢ $14 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $30 28h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $30 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.42 · official $104.42 (match) · 71 history records