Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:22:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bf4…53eb world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$1
other 16% −$1
crypto 7% $0
finance 6% −$1
economics 4% $0
politics 2% $0
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 12 +0.5% -9.0% 25% 17% -10.0%
≤90d 13 +1.7% -8.0% 31% 23% -10.0%
all 27 -5.2% -14.3% 41% 11% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 11% -10.4%
10% -22.5% 0% -18.9%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.8%
20% -36.8% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage448d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $23 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $59 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $42 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $32 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $13 −$1 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $18 +$2 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $59 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $27 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 20 $13 +$1 +12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $1 $0 +15%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $20 $0 -1%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $3 −$1 -32%
Will the Titans draft a Quarterback? Apr 27 $2 $0 -20%
Will the Jets draft a QB in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 19 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wim Eijk be the next pope? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 02 $13 $0 +2%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Mar 28 $13 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $26 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $23 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $23 33h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $24 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $2 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $27 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $12 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $12 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $7 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $21 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $31 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $31 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $17 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $14 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $32 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $28 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $29 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $12 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $5 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $8 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $20 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $18 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $2 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $3 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $30 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $30 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $22 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.92 · official $25.92 (match) · 89 history records