Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:40:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2B 0x2bf2…45bc other 783 markets active 0h ago coverage 200d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 200d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$102 (-1%) realized −$157 · open +$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%292W / 744L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$356
7 days−$421
14 days−$463
30 days−$562
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$433
sports 37% −$203
weather 1% −$41
culture 1% −$94
world 1% −$73
crypto 0% −$6
economics 0% −$11
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 276 -97.5% -97.8% 2% 2% -98.2%
≤30d 308 -90.0% -90.9% 7% 7% -94.1%
≤90d 345 -87.3% -88.5% 8% 8% -92.4%
all 1036 -32.9% -39.2% 28% 25% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.2% 25% -20.9%
10% -45.1% 20% -28.5%
15% -50.4% 15% -35.4%
20% -55.2% 12% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -92% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$7 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized−$157
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses292 / 744
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions109
Markets (closed)1036 / 783
History coverage200d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 109 History 1036 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 48¢ $2 $24 +$22 (+1161%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 48¢ $2 $24 +$22 (+1135%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 28¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+641%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 26¢ $2 $13 +$11 (+563%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+381%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+355%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+355%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+355%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+355%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+355%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+251%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+251%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+225%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+208%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+173%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Yes 50¢ 96¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+93%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+151%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 93¢ $0 $5 +$4 (+919%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+121%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+116%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+95%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+43%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 50¢ 6¢ $25 $3 −$22 (-89%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+34%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 294 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 14? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -111%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 48m
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.93 · official $228.93 (match) · 3500 history records