Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:41:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bf2…bace politics 296 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$1 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate58%163W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% +$3
other 31% −$40
world 6% +$3
culture 4% −$3
crypto 2% −$6
tech 2% +$2
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -7.8% -16.6% 0% 0% -16.6%
≤30d 17 -26.0% -33.1% 35% 12% -35.9%
≤90d 151 +11.8% +1.1% 54% 30% -9.9%
all 280 +5.4% -4.6% 58% 30% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 30% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 23% -23.6%
15% -22.1% 18% -31.0%
20% -29.7% 14% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses163 / 117
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)280 / 296
History coverage117d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $9 $7 −$2 (-23%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $7 $4 −$2 (-35%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? No 88¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Selena Gomez be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids? Yes 70¢ 75¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine? No 58¢ 43¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 80¢ 37¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Halle Berry as Storm? No 67¢ 49¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 60¢ 22¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-63%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+24%)
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026? Yes 64¢ 34¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-46%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-53%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will 9z qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 07 $1 $0 +8%
Jonathan Majors as Kang? Jun 06 $1 $0 -4%
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will Andrey Santos be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squ Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 -14%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? May 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in May? May 27 $1 $0 +9%
Will Bernie say "Restructure" in Maine? May 25 $1 $0 +10%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? May 24 $1 $0 -8%
Will Rayan be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Drake feature Lil Yachty on ICEMAN? May 15 $1 $0 +20%
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump's tie be red on May 3, 2026? May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump's tie be red on May 4, 2026? May 04 $1 $0 +16%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 2, 2026? May 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in May? May 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $1 $0 +42%
Will Trump say "Cookie" or "Potato" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Percent" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $1 +$2 +154%
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $1 +$2 +186%
AWS service disrupted by June 30? May 01 $1 $0 -14%
Will Trump name "Zohran" or "Mamdani" in April? May 01 $1 +$1 +100%
AWS service disrupted by April 30? May 01 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in April? May 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Braggadocious" in April? May 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Trump say "Coward" in April? May 01 $1 $0 +29%
Will Trump say "N Word" in April? May 01 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $1 $0 +8%
Will Trump say "Moon" 5+ times during astronaut greeting? Apr 30 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April? Apr 29 $1 +$1 +92%
Will Trump say "Kennedy Center" in April? Apr 29 $1 +$1 +113%
Will Donald Trump's tie be blue? Apr 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 22? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 22 $1 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Coach" 15+ times during NCAA National Champions remark Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Where is" 3+ times during NCAA National Champions rema Apr 22 $1 $0 +43%
Will Trump say "Hot" or "Hottest" during NCAA National Champions remar Apr 21 $1 $0 -12%
Will Trump say "Gulf of America" or "Gulf of Trump" during CNBC: Squaw Apr 21 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 21¢ $0 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 21¢ $0 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 16¢ $0 13h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 16¢ $0 13h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 16¢ $0 13h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 18¢ $0 36h
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 42h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 15¢ $0 42h
Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime sh SELL No 92¢ $0 46h
Will 9z qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 7d
Will 9z qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $0 7d
Will 9z qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 7d
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 7d
Jonathan Majors as Kang? SELL No 90¢ $0 8d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 9d
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? BUY No 80¢ $1 10d
Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine? SELL No 53¢ $0 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 11d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 11d
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? SELL Yes 61¢ $0 11d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 12d
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 12d
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 12d
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 12d
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 12d
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 12d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $1 12d
Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime sh BUY No 94¢ $1 12d
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? SELL Yes 54¢ $0 12d
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 15¢ $0 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.21 · official $57.38 · 3500 history records